Serie A: Lazio sum up decade in a season

Football calendars all over western Europe are beginning to draw to a close, fans of clubs fighting for survival will be poring over the final few fixtures with their calculators trying to desperately scrape every point possible to prove their side’s survival mathematically. No side in Serie A are more concerned with their side’s form than Lazio. This season marks the 10th Anniversary of the roman side’s second scudetto under the frivolous direction of Sven Goran Eriksson and the liberal chequebook of Sergio Cragnotti.

How fitting then that this season has been a succinct snapshot of the past decade. Lazio began the season with a victory against Inter in the Italian Super Cup, Italy’s charity shield, coming from behind to win 2-1. This lead to some solid and inspired victories against Atalanta and Chievo in the league and Elfsborg in a Europa League qualifier. With European competition confirmed and the team looking good in Serie A they welcomed Juventus to the Stadio Olimpico looking to defend their 100% record. The defeat, 0-2, while not ideal was still a respectable result against a good Juventus side.

The result triggered a complete breakdown throughout the Lazio squad, the undercurrent of problems regarding the ostracised players Ledesma and Pandev began to come to the fore. The players were banished  from participating with any first team activities as is the custom for rebellious players at many Italian clubs. The slump left Lazio searching for another win between the end of August and December 13th when they finally beat Genoa. They went into the Christmas break sitting perilously close the relegation zone. Something had to change when they came back in the new year.

The New year began with a number of changes, both good and bad. First of all Goran Pandev’s case was finally heard and resolved. He had been freed by the CAS and Inter snapped him up almost immediately, this was a big blow. Lazio had lost a player who could’ve been great for them, for free and had not even been allowed to contribute to any form of campaign this season. Sergio Floccari was brought in and scored in the opening game of the year, which was a 4-1 win against Livorno. An obvious false dawn given Livorno’s slip to the bottom of the table.

After this it was back to business as normal, losing and drawing against teams we would have expected to beat before the beginning of the season. Time had finally run out for Davide Ballardini and he was promptly asked to leave the club on the 10th February. New manager syndrome provided a 2-0 victory away to Parma on valentines day but this was followed by a draw and 3 defeats. One of Reja’s stipulations was that he would bring Cristian Ledesma out of the wilderness and he would have full control over matters of player discipline, or else.

A home to defeat to Bari, the first in over 25 years, left Lazio in the relegation places. This led the Lazio boss to take his team on retreat to Norcia in Umbria. Reja was outraged when busy-body chairman Lotito arranged for a sports psychologist to turn up and counsel the demoralised squad. Reja came out and stated that he alone would decide who would see the psychologist, in the end no one did surprisingly.

Lazio haven’t been helped by the very good seasons that Bari and Parma have had but they need to pick up as many points as possible as they look toward the final quarter of the season. They will have to target fixtures such as tonight’s game against relegation rivals Siena. Here are my predictions for their run-in.

24 Mar	Siena (H)
28 Mar	Milan (A)
03 Apr	Napoli (H)
11 Apr	Bologna (A)
18 Apr	Roma (H)
24 Apr	Genoa (A)
01 May	Inter (H)
08 May	Livorno (A)
15 May	Udinese (H)

This is a very tough run in, they will need to pick up points against Siena, Livorno and Udinese. They will also be playing all 3 title contenders in Inter, Milan and Roma. These games will almost certainly end in defeat but any upsets will be very much appreciated by a side who need every point they can get. Games against Napoli and Genoa will be the games where points, though not expected, are achievable.

In the past 3 seasons 36 points has been enough to keep the side in 17th place up. Lazio can hope to achieve this watermark with wins 3 wins against their rivals. However one of these will have to come on the final day of the season. Nervous times are ahead for fans of the roman club, this is a season where victory in the Rome derby would be so so sweet.

Tips, 20/21st March

Right, last weekend was rubbish, but let's have another go.

Premier League

Sat 12:45 ASTON VILLA v Wolves @1.40

Championship


Sat 15:00 NOTTINGHAM FOREST v Peterborough @1.50 Forest's away form has crumbled, but they've remained strong at home. Peterborough only won away from home for the first time last week at an abysmal Watford.
Sat 15:00 Bristol City v NEWCASTLE @1.83 City just lost their manager, Newcastle are cruising. Nice odds.
Sun 15:00 CARDIFF v Watford @1.72 Watford finally won on Tuesday after 4 straight defeats, but are still very poor away from home. Cardiff are up and down, but should win.

League One

Sat 15:00 CHARLTON v Gillingham @1.57 Considered a bit of a derby match, but Gillingham haven't won away all season (D5, L13, scored 11, conceded 37). Charlton -1 @2.70 is a good shout as well.

COnference

Sat 15:00 Ebbsfleet v LUTON @1.75
Sat 15:00 KETTERING v Forest Green @1.50

Bundesliga

Sat 14:30 WERDER BREMEN v Bochum @1.33 Bochum are rubbish. Slight concern is that Bremen played yesterday- they should still win, but I'd be more tempted if the odds were a bit better.
Sun 16:30 WOLFSBURG v Hertha Berlin @1.50

Primera Liga

Sat 17:00 D.LA CORUNA v Valladolid @1.66 Valladolid are awful and are in bad form; they don't seem to be able to play football.

Serie A

Sat 19:45 ROMA v Udinese @1.75 Roma's title challenge has lost pace with 3 draws on the bounce, but they are strong at home and Udinese have failed to win away all season (D5, L9)
Sat 19:45 PALERMO OR DRAW v Inter @1.61 Inter having been wobbling in the league (Last 5 - W1, D3, L1), but will be on a high after a magnificent performance against Chelsea. However, I think they could be a bit drained from it and Palermo are unbeaten at home this season. I also think Palermo to win @3.40 is very high and could be worth a fiver.

Ligue 1

Sat 18:00 AUXERRE v Le Mans @1.57 Auxerre flying, Le Mans not good
Sun 16:00 MONTPELLIER v Valenciennes @1.85 Generous given Monty's league position and home record. not in brilliant form, but solid enough.

Eredivisie

Sun 11:30 RKC Waalwijk v AJAX @1.20, AJAX -1 @1.61


Top Tip: Tough to pick one this week, but I'll go for Roma to beat Udinese. Honourable mention must go to the Charlton -1 - 2.70 is very good odds for this, although I'm not as confident of it coming off.

Chelsea succumb to Sunday League tactics

Jose Mourinho’s return to Stamford Bridge was a victorious one, with many sceptics planning the death, demise and funeral of Serie A it was left to the ‘Special One’ to show just what the best Italian teams are capable of producing in European competition. Inter controlled much of the game and hit Chelsea 11 minutes from time with a wonderful goal crafted by Sneijder and finished clinically by Samuel Eto’o. Chelsea were probably disappointed at half time to go in with the scores level, they had had a 15 minute spell that led to many chances and a goal was only avoided by a series of last ditch tackles and excellent blocks. Didier Drogba struck a wonderful half volley on the turn that was shaping into the top left corner but Maicon threw himself at the ball as if his life depended on it not reaching the target.

So far the Champions League has eluded both sides on show, Chelsea coming close in 2008. So it will be a doubly bitter pill to swallow for Carlo Ancelotti who earlier on this week outlined the competition as the club’s number one objective this season. He will have to concentrate on a more modest League and Cup double now.

Chelsea lined up as a 4-3-3 with Lampard, Mikel and Ballack in the midfield and Malouda, Drogba and Anelka up front. The good news for Chelsea was that they had a full back of sorts playing at left back rather than the emergency measure that was Florent Malouda. Though it may have been touted as the manager’s number one objective the Chelsea players tonight didn’t seem to be showing the sort of drive required to take them through to the next round. The side lacked width much like it had in the first leg, something which I had pointed to here as the best way to break Inter down.

Mourinho sent out a line-up that was incredibly more attacking than anyone expected. He selected what appeared to be a 4-2-1-3 when attacking and a 4-2-3-1 without the ball. In many ways it was a case of attack being the best form of defence. This article at ZonalMarking.net puts forward the theory that Mourinho set out to ensure that Chelsea were stifled by occupying all of the Chelsea players. The midfield pairing of Motta and Cambiasso bossed the midfield and completely removed the threat of Lampard and Ballack from the game allowing Inter to take control of the midfield. Chelsea needed to seize back the middle of the pitch in the same way a chess player should aim to control the middle of the board.

With control of the midfield established Inter were able to hit Chelsea with the same simple tactic again and again, the Premier League side did not adapt to it and eventually it led to their downfall. Inter resorted to playing a series of meandering passes between players on one flank before pinging cross field balls for Maicon or Pandev to run onto. In the first half Maicon found himself with almost a quarter of the pitch empty but the Brazilian number one right back failed to capitalise on the ineptitude of the Chelsea back line. In the second half the focus of these attacks switched to the left hand side, Sneijder putting Milito through on goal but Milito fluffed the shot choosing full power rather than any level of accuracy.

This tactic of squeezing play into one area of the pitch before unloading balls onto the opposite flank where the opposing winger is waiting to collect a ball and attack the empty space is something I have seen utilised at amateur and semi-pro level to a great extent. I was very surprised to see a Premier League team succumb to this in Europe. The root cause is Chelsea’s width, while it is perfectly acceptable to field an asymmetric formation deploying Ballack, Anelka and Ivanovic leaves them very narrow on the right hand side and they will struggle to contain teams who attack well down the left hand side.

While Inter did well to beat Chelsea I think they will struggle to go far in the competition, at least they will not do so with ease. I think that they’ll come up short against sides who attack with plenty of width and that are able to contain Sneijder and Maicon. Man Utd for example could deploy Park down the left to keep Maicon tied up and put Fletcher on Sneijder and that will blunt the Italian attack significantly.

Another factor that will stop them clinching their first Champions League is their disciplinary record, they picked up 4 yellow cards and with the whole back line on a yellow before the 2nd leg began they will be without Lucio for the next side they are paired against in Friday’s draw. They were fortunate that the officials missed some of the wrestling that was occurring at corners, this could have changed the game dramatically if UEFA had done the decent thing and issued referees with directives to crack down on rugby tackles in the penalty area. Until there are 3 or 4 games where a sequence of penalties are awarded for such actions players will not learn that they cannot commit such atrocities.

Weekend Tips, 12th/13th/14th March

I am in no way an expert and lose money most of the time betting. Here are my weekend tips anyway:

England - all matches 3pm kickoffs on Saturday

Premier League:

Hull v ARSENAL @1.40

Championship:

WATFORD v Peterborough @1.72 I fancy us to win this. We've been controlling games, not scoring and then defensive deficiencies have cost us. I'm confident that Peterborough are so bad we'll have a couple of chances that are impossible to miss. And Tom Cleverly will be back from suspension.
COVENTRY v Plymouth @1.75 Cov on good form, Plymouth are rubbish.
SWANSEA v Sheffield Wednesday @1.57 Swansea are BORING, but effective, and Wednesday are on a bad run. Unbelievably, Swansea sit 4th despite being the lowest scorers in the division (31 in 35 games).

League One:

BRISTOL ROVERS v Tranmere @1.80

League Two:

BURTON ALBION v Cheltenham @1.80
NORTHAMPTON v Darlington @1.36 Darlington and Grimsby keep effing me over by not losing despite being absolutely terrible, but Northampton are decent and on a good run so I think they'll dispatch them here.

Conference:

MANSFIELD v Tamworth @1.66
RUSHDEN & DIAMONDS v Gateshead @1.44


Bundesliga (2.30pm Saturday)

MAINZ v Cologne @2.20 Mainz still have an excellent home record (no longer unbeaten after losing at home to Bremen 2 weeks ago, though). Cologne are pretty rubbish, despite drawing with Bayern Munich last week. Don't stake a lot on it, but I think these odds are generous


Serie A (2pm Sunday)

Livorno v ROMA @1.80


Primera Liga (8pm Sunday)

Valladolid v REAL MADRID @1.28 Real might be a bit down following their champions league exit, but Valladolid are all over the shop. I expect complete annihilation here. In fact, I also fancy REAL -1 @1.80



Ligue 1

LYON v St Etienne @1.36 (8pm Saturday) Lyon are in good form, St Etienne are very patchy. I think Lyon will win, but I was hoping for slightly better odds, given it's a local derby, which will fire St Etienne up.
LILLE v Grenoble @1.30 (4pm Sunday) Lille great at home. Grenoble rockbottom, despite some better form recently.


Eredivisie

TWENTE v ADO Den Haag @1.25 (7.45pm Friday) Standard bet, but Twente win most weeks.
AZ -1 v RKC Waalwijk @1.44 (6.45pm Saturday) RKC are bottom, terrible away record (W1 L11). AZ are in good form and I expect them to crush RKC.


Top Tip: Real Madrid with the -1 handicap @1.80

Blasphemy strikes in Italian amateur leagues

Here is a piece of news for all those who have stated that they’ll never get tough on shirt tugging or other silly fouls in the penalty area, because they’d have to give so many penalties in the first week that it would be chaos. Well, the referee’s directives have been in force for 2 weekends and a referee in a amateur league in Bergamo found it necessary to dismiss 3 players between the 55th and 70th minute of a game between Villa d'Ogna and Longuelo. The game ended 2-2 but while the respective teams will be pleased to take home a point I doubt any of the players who have been sent off will be looking forward to serving their bans.

To date there have only been 2 bans handed out at the very top level, but perhaps these were enough to make it clear to the players that they were not merely making empty threats. Now if only they could hold such vigour over real football issues such as shirt tugging, obstruction, overprotection of goalkeepers and other petty offences carried out in the penalty area that despite being fouls are “too harsh to give penalties for”

SHOW ME THE MONEY!!!!!

In one of the best scenes of Jerry Maguire, Rod Tidwell (a brilliant Cuba Gooding Junior) is annoyed by his lack of a new contract, blaming his agent Jerry Maguire (Tom Cruise) for too much 'talking' and that his team mates are getting paid far more than he is. He doesn't refer to his new contract in monetary terms, no, he refers to it as "the kwan":

Rod Tidwell: Maybe you don't. Because it's not just the money I deserve. It's not just the "coin." It's the... - "the kwan".
Jerry Maguire: That's your word?
Rod Tidwell: Yeah, man, it means love, respect, community... and the dollars too. The package. The kwan.
Jerry Maguire: But how did you get "kwan?"
Rod Tidwell: I got there from "coin," dude. Coin, coin... kwaaaan.

"The kwan" is the sporting equivalent of the Homeric kudos. It is not just about getting a lucrative deal, it is about getting parity with your fellow players, the amount you deserve as a footballer, rugby player or whatever. I don't necessarily believe that the kwan is the be all and end all to footballers, I think its more of a mindset, especially those earning a lot of money in sport. The regular joe on the street does not understand "kwan", as for the sports star, the exceptional amount of money now does not matter, what matters is the parity with his team mates, and his value ot the team as a whole. Two footballers have recently been in the news over not getting the kwan, and their desire for new contracts. Both have yet to receive the offer they have wanted and their displeasure at their clubs reluctance to offer them what they want has been splashed across the newspapers.

The first, Joe Cole is currently earning about 80k a week, and his contract expires in the summer. He allegedly wants in excess of 100k a week, nearer what Chelsea and England team mates John Terry and Frank Lampard earn. Does he deserve this substantial pay rise?

Joe Cole is 28, and his next contract will possibly be his most lucrative, he is at his footballing peak and has been a loyal servant for Chelsea since 2003, playing over 170 league games. This season however has been one to forget; blighted by injury, he's played about 4 league games and has seen his place, not just in the first XI but in the England squad taken away. He will probably not go to South Africa. He has also seen his close friends in the Chelsea team get lucrative new deals, such as Lampard, Terry and Ashley Cole, whilst he has had to wait. This could've just been down to timing as the new manager this season, Ancelotti seems to not be a fan of his. He might prefer to go out and purchase a younger player, who will be on much lower wages and have greater potential than Cole for the future.

Cole is clearly a gifted footballer who has great natural ability, and he could play for any of the top teams in England. Does he however deserve a new deal on parity with other players who have clearly shown to be more important to Chelsea than he has been? Cole has been replaceable for Chelsea in the last year or so. Its clear that other Chelsea players are more crucial to the club's success than Cole is. Terry's leadership and defensive capabilities, along with Lampards goals and set piece taking is more important than Cole's creative skill. He's also had his injury problems in the past, which will only get worse with age, and maybe a new club could revitalise his career which has stalled somewhat recently.

Cole is not just the only England international to want a new deal, Shaun Wright Philips has voiced his concern over the new contract offered by Manchester City. He is reportedly on 60k a week, and would like this increased to 75k. The difference with Cole (and there are a couple) is that SWP has got 2 years left on his current contract, not six months and that he has played nearly all of this season, without distinction. It hasn't helped that SWP dad, the quiet and reserved Ian Wright, blasted Cook and Marwood about not offering his son the deal he apparently deserved. In this situation however, the club holds all the cards, with 2 years remaining on his deal. City can take their time, not having to worry about his contract running out any time soon and not be pressurised (especially by the players dad!) to make a final decision.

The problem for SWP is that this has not endeared him to some fans, who rightly ask whether getting an extra 15k a week on his already big wage is right. This may be moving into Ashley Cole territory, and nobody wants that. It could also be an element with timing for SWP as well, he came in before the new owners did, and Mancini hasn't warmed to him like Hughes did. What has also caused the problem is that there are others in the team on MASSIVE money. Adebayor is reportedly earning 175k a week. Why shouldn't SWP get less than half of what he's earning? Is that right? Should his kwan demands be met?

The similarities between these two players can be traced to their respective clubs, and their transfer dealings. Both have been subjected to takeovers by wealthy 'sugar daddy's' who have spent big on bringing new faces on big money to the club. Wage structures have gone out of the window, and naturally in these situations, footballers will get extremely annoyed about wage parity. Bringing one superstar on big wages may not change much, bringing quite a few will certainly rock the boat. SWP probably feels a little unappreciated considering all the new faces and their huge contracts that have recently come to the club. I'm sure he just wants to be valued as they are. To the average man on the street, this would seem ludicrous, they earn massive money any way, why do you need an extra 10k on the millions you make a year? But to a footballer in the dressing room, its about being valued, getting respect and probably a bit of jealousy too. Shaun Wright Phillips wants his Kwan, and he wants it bad.

Does this mean that the sugar daddy culture is infeasible in the long term? How is a high wage structure sustainable when players will be arguing over parity? This would be especially hard for clubs in the future where wages and turnover may be linked for European qualification. City have had their dressing room problems this year, and by all accounts it still isn't happy now. Maybe they bought the wrong kind of player, or they've gone for superstars when they would have needed to take things slower. Chelsea have taken a more measured approach recently, but even they aren't immune to problems with wages, especially when they are trying to move to a self sustainable model, of which Peter Kenyon was so successful.

Will Joe Cole move? It is certainly up to him. I can't see Chelsea budging too much on what they've offered unless he starts to seriously perform on the pitch. Sir Alex Ferguson and Harry Redknapp are both long term admirers of Cole and would take him on a free transfer. Would he however, earn what he wants by moving to those clubs? Will anyone show Joe or Shaun the money?

Late Late Drama at the Santiago Bernabeu

Real Madrid left things very very late to snatch a win against Seville last night in Madrid and consequently to take top spot from Barcelona who earlier yesterday failed to get a win away to Almeria. The new ‘galacticos’ had to overturn a 2-goal deficit to win 3-2. Cristiano Ronaldo was forced to put in a performance after his unimpressive outing against China in midweek.

You can find highlights of this game courtesy of 101greatgoals here.

Seville went ahead early on with the ball flying across the 6 yard box twice before going in off of Xabi Alonso who was attempting to challenge Negredo. Then on 52 minutes Dragutinovic curled a very speculative ball in on goal, to me it seemed to be a very straight cross as it had very little power on it at it wasn’t aimed at a particular corner of the goal, it seemed to completely undo Casillas though as with no one bearing down on the ball to worry him it simply bounced into the goal as he flailed after it.

At this point Pellegrini, already under immense pressure this season, must have been tearing his hair out. Were Real Madrid about to throw away a golden opportunity to go top of La Liga? Seville began to look very nervous and the game turned into an exercise in attack vs defence. The Merengues led an almighty bombardment on the Andalucian goalmouth with 34-2 on the shot counter goals were inevitable.

The resurgence only really began though once Cristiano Ronaldo swept the ball in on the hour mark once Marcelo’s cross had been deflected. The equaliser came in minimally controversial fashion, Van der Vaart taking a corner from the left hand side with the ball only just overhanging the corner quadrant, Sergio Ramos headed in to make it 2-2.

I can never understand what possible advantage anyone gains from placing the ball 6 inches slightly further toward it’s intended target. A similar situation occurs when watching penalty shootouts, players insist on placing the ball at the very tip of the penalty mark as if they didn’t already have enough of an advantage over the keeper. I would love to know what other people think about this.

Back to the Bernabeu, with Madrid now in the ascendency it seemed a matter of when rather than if. The stadium expected to see another goal but somehow the Seville goal resisted. Palop’s goal led a charmed life during this 25 minute period. Higuain hit both the post and bar and attempts from Ronaldo, Marcelo and Sergio Ramos all went agonisingly close to finding the net. All until the 92nd minute, a Sergio Ramos cross found Higuain who headed on goal for the umpteenth time Palop made a save but Van der Vaart bore down on the rebound and smashed the ball home, a true poachers goal.

The scenes on the pitch at the end of the game were truly bizarre. It was almost as if Real had decided that they had won the title. Perhaps this will be a turning point in the race for La Liga championship but to me it seems a little premature to be celebrating in such fashion. Real host Lyon at home on Wednesday evening, there they will again have a deficit to overturn (1-0), if they aren’t on their best behaviour they may see themselves exiting the Champions League thereby extending their poor knockout round showing since 2003.

Choice Cuts

England 3 - 1 Egypt

A second half rally by England secured the victory with a brace from Peter Crouch and a goal for Shaun Wright-Philips. Dortmund striker Mohamed Zidan had opened the scoring with a very well taken goal, midway through the first half. England had struggled until changes in the 2nd half gave the team new impetuous. Crouch replaced Defoe whose partnership with Rooney looked lacklustre and ineffective. Carrick and Milner did well when they came on, and Wright Philips has seemingly overtaken Walcott in the pecking order for the right midfield position.

England's 4-4-2 was outdone in the first half by Egypts 3-5-2. England's lack of width especially playing Gerrard in the left midfield role and the cautious nature of both England's full backs meant Egypt's back 3 was never really stretched and could deal with the 2 up front. Barry also had to cover Gerrard's wandering at times, going to out wide to help Baines. The 2nd half brought a tactical change with Crouch providing the emphasis for the attack and Baines getting forward a lot more. Milner moving out to the left also created a lot more space. Carrick sitting in front of the defence gave Barry a much more free reign and he responded setting up the first goal. It looks like Robert Green will be Capello's number one in goal after a faultless performance but one worry which hasn't gone away is at centre back, where Matthew Upson was unconvincing. His slip led to Egypts goal and he looked very nervous and hesitant. If Rio isn't fit, what will England do?

France 0 - 2 Spain

Spain were in imperious form to see off France, dominating the game. Goals from David Villa (37 in 55!!!) and Ramos in the first half were more than enough. Spain dominated possession with Iniesta and Fabregas in midfield, not creating too many chances but controlling the game. A second half cameo from Jesus Navas was by all accounts very impressive, giving both Evra and Sagna the runaround more than once. If he can bear being away from Seville for a few months then he'll be on the plane. Spain should go into the world cup as clear favourites. They have a settled squad, full of quality in every position. France on the other hand under Domenech have not changed much at all. Henry was booed by the home crowd even before Spain took the lead. The onus will be on Franck Ribery to try and inspire a group of players who just don't seem up for it.

Germany 0 - 1 Argentina

A surprise result given the recent world cup qualifying campaigns of both teams. Argentina under Maradona have had little consistency in results and team selection. Higuain continued his hot goalscoring form with the only goal of the game. Another impressive performer was Benfica winger Di Maria who went past German defenders with ease and will be pushing for a place in the starting XI on a regular basis. Argentina definitely have the players to go far in the WC, but can Maradona get the best out of them? Is he a crazed genius or just plain crazy?

Germany's problems off the pitch with the furore over Joachim Löw's new contract has seemingly affected them on it. What is weird is that Low's contract ends on the 30th June 2010, half way through the world cup. I still expect Germany to be a force in South Africa, they always turn up for tournaments.

Read more about the Bierhoff / German FA situation here: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2010/feb/08/germany-joachim-jogi-low-contract

Brazil: An Examination

I had the privilege of watching the Brazilian national team at the Emirates last night. It may have been more of a privilege than I regard it right now; I could well have been watching the team that lift this year's World Cup. But based on last night, I don't think that will be the case.

Brazil, as always, contain some of the most talented players in the world. Lucio is still a supreme centre-half (eventhough he will be 32 by the start of the tournament), flawless last night and nearly perfect against a top-form Didier Drogba in the Champions League last week. I don't think anyoe can truly appreciate the faculties of Maicon until you see him in person; the man is a fantastic athlete and a graceful footballer. The sight of him marauding down the right flank is truly something to behold. And then there is the crown jewel, Kaka; anything of any substance attack-wise flows through him at some point. For me, these three are the best in the team and would be worthy world champions, but they are not going to achieve this status with some of the supporting cast performing as it is.

Robinho, somewhat misguidedly, was awarded man of the match last night, which I presume was only because he finished off a fine move to score Brazil's second goal and there wasn't really another obvious candidate. His perfomance other than scoring was limp and ineffective; he had missed an easy chance to score earlier in the second half, his passing was poor and his numerous stepovers amounted to nothing. Robinho, on his day, is among the best; skilful, plenty of trickery, unpredictable- when all these things come together (and he uses his brain too), he's a frightening prospect for any opposition. Unfortunately these occurences are all too infrequent. Someone asked me: who would you rather have, Robinho or Ronaldinho? And my response was a shrug of the shoulders; in the case of either, it's easier to predict the toss a coin than if they play well or not. Ronaldinho has had something of a resurgence ins recent months (the most obvious example of this being the first hour against Manchester United a couple of weeks ago); if he carries on like this and Milan put together a late challenge for the Serie A title, Dunga will be under pressure to bring him back into the fold. I think Dunga is reluctant to do so, not least because Ronaldinho doesn't really fit into his 4-2-2-2 system, but I think he must surely be worth taking a risk (if indeed there is any element of risk) on and including in the final 23, if only to make use of him as an impact substitute.

Past the issue of (supposedly) star men not performing, I think that there are problems with the quality of some of the first team players and a lack of strength in depth in some positions. The most obvious problem seems to be at left back. Michel Bastos played there last night, as he did against England in November, but he doesn't really convince me; Shaun Wright-Phillips had the beating of him more than once and he might not even make it on England's plane to South Africa. A high calibre winger with a bit of speed and trickery (not Liam Lawrence) could be troubling for him. Deportivo La Coruna's Felipe seemed to be favourite to fill the void until injury brought his season to a premature end. Other recent left-back call ups:
- Gilberto; back in Brazil with Cruzeiro after failing miserably with Tottenham. He will be 34 by the start of the tournament and, unless he's undergone a magical transformation since his time at Spurs, doesn't seem like the solution to me.
- Kleber: aged 29, plays for Internacional in Brazil. In all honesty, I know nothing about him and can't say that I've seen him play (to my knowledge), but the fact that he's accrued only 19 international caps in 8 years tells me that he's never going to be the long-term answer to the problem. He seems to be one of the first ports of call if there's need for backup and there's no one better around.
- Andre Santos: aged 26, plays for Fenerbahce. Seemed to first choice last year, playing in the majority of the Confederations Cup games as Brazil won the trophy. I thought he was fairly competent; wasn't outstanding, but was a decent enough defender and fairly adept at going forward.
- Marcelo: aged 21, Real Madrid. I don't really know why he's not the first choice. He's not the most consistent performer, but is now playing at left back regularly for one of the top clubs in Europe. He does like to get forward though, and I can see how, with Maicon often forward on the opposite side, Dunga might be concerned that both his fullbacks might commit too much to the attack.
Whoever is chosen to start at left back, the position is still one of the weak links of the team.

The 4-2-2-2 system has been much lauded and the players are familiar with it and slip into position with ease, but is it not perhaps too conservative? If any country can actually put the shackles on Maicon and make him think about defending more than attacking, then the use of two holding players becomes redundant. The way I see it, Gilberto Silva's function is to drop into a centre back position, whilst one of the existing centre backs pushes out wide to cover a vacated full back position. The 4-2-2-2 can often end up looking like this:


<-Lucio Juan Bastos
Maicon Gilberto Melo
Ramires
Kaka Robinho
Adriano

Brazil are too reliant on Maicon and attacking down the right. If he's off-form or a team set up defensively to counter his threat, then there's not a lot of attacking thrust coming from elsewhere. In qualification they drew 7 times; 4 of these were 0-0 draws at home. There is a distinct lack of imagination coming from other areas; Kaka was often forced yesterday to go backwards when in possession, as there wasn't enough coming up to support him. Ramires offered nothing- he simply seems to be there as a security net for Maicon roaming forward, protecting the area immediately behind him as he blasts forward. Brazil played were a much more effective attacking unit when Dani Alves replaced Ramires. I would guess that in the vast majority of Brazil games I've seen over the 2010 qualification period, Alves has been brought on to play with Maicon. I can't understand Dunga's apparent reluctance to start them together, when it evidently works. Perhaps he just thinks it would be less effective from the outset and Dani Alves has more of an impact coming off the bench to change the tempo of the side. I think it must surely be worth starting both of them; Alves is a much more capable and invtentive player than either Ramires or Elano. Strikeforce is another problem. Luis Fabiano is a world class centre forward, but is currently injured, as he has been for most of the season. Adriano replaced him last night and might as well have not bothered making the journey from Brazil for all the work he put in. The system relies on using a target man-esque striker, but beyond Fabiano they are lacking in this position.

A (Tentative) Guide on How to beat Brazil:
- Shut down Maicon. Much easier to say than it is to do, but I think this is integral to success. Teams need to be defensively sound and not afford him the space to get down the flank. For example, sticking a hard-working winger who'll track back on him (someone in the Park Ji-Sung mould) should limit his threat. The only alternative is to perhaps go completely in the other direction and stick someone high up on the left and leave them there; Maicon would think twice about marauding forward if Robben or Messi were left in space down his side.
- They don't like a target man, or at least Juan doesn't. Juan seemed quite uncomfortable yesterday with the balls played into Kevin Doyle: he's not the biggest centre-back in the world, and didn't seem to enjoy Doyle having his back to him holding up the ball. I think he would be very tested and exposed against someone with more presence than Doyle (someone like Emile Heskey, maybe?)
- Attack their left. As I've pointed out, left back is a bit of problem for them- none of the potential solutions are brilliant defenders and good wide men will cause problems for them down that flank.
- Move the ball quickly in midfield. The two holding players are not the quickest; age is catching up with Gilberto Silva, and both he and Melo would have received bookings last night if the game weren't a friendly, for poorly timed, sloppy challenges. Snappy, accurate passing could be their undoing (I think if they met tomorrow Spain would beat them).
- Don't try and beat them. For the first hour last night, Ireland had Brazil contained (I don't really count the first Brazil goal as any sort of breakthrough; it was an unfortunate own goal and Robinho was offside in the build up). They sat back with 8 men behind the ball, pumping it up to Doyle to hold up- they did not dare to be the least bit adventurous. Eventually, they could not keep up the intensity of their pressing, Brazil started to assert themselves on the game more and eased through the last half hour. But as their 7 draws in qualifying show, if a team can keep up a solid defence for 90 minutes, Brazil aren't necessarily going to break through.

So, I don't think Brazil will win the World Cup (and with me having said so and written this article on it, they're almost certain to.) Discuss.

Wednesday Tit-Bits: Wenger versus The World

In the wake of Aaron Ramsey’s broken leg at Stoke on Saturday, the media seems to have covered the story form multiple different angles. Yet in true journalistic style the only thing that anyone seemed to care about were that: -

• Ryan Shawcross didn’t MEAN to break anyone’s leg
• There was no malice or intent behind the challenge
• Arsenal’s style of midfield passing football means they’re far more likely to be on the end of such tackles
• Arsene defended similar style of hard tackling play when he had players such as Vieira and Adams in his side 7 years ago

It's obvious that Wenger has changed his views and approach in the same way that the style of his squad has changed.  Any coach worth his salt should be able to adapt style and philosophies based on the players he has at his disposal. The passion fuelled debates between Arseblog, ArsenalInsider and a good deal of journalists such as Robert Dineen and Matt Dickinson.

I think it does the game a bit of a disservice to continue any debate in the same vein. What is really needed is some way to stop such events ever happening again. Other than perhaps the Guardian’s Football Weekly podcast everywhere else the football world has focused on the actors of this story.

The words malice or intent should never be a part of any discussion on the matter, the cases where a player has intentionally committed a career threatening act are so obvious that it need not be considered.

I would rather hear a discussion on what constitutes a good tackle rather than a bludgeon or scything challenge. There is something to be said for good positioning and ball control, had Shawcross not had such a poor, heavy touch in the first place he would not have been in a position to make the challenge. No other country likes a good hard tackle like the they do in England, but if people don’t want to see these sorts of incidents again there will have to be a greater shift toward technique and control.

The rest of the Arsenal players must also be applauded for carrying on with the match in question. They didn’t self destruct as they had done against Birmingham 2 seasons ago. The team seemed to pick up their tempo again after 5-10 minutes, though they were handed a penalty that could have gone either way, and the 3rd goal seemed to matter little other than to add an flattering gloss to what had been a tight game. Stoke did very well to defend their goal up until the 90th minute but rarely threatened after the first half.

Blatter considers doing away with offside

It seems Sepp Blatter wants to take a leaf out of Hockey’s book and rather than investigate the possibility of video technology, something that wouldn’t require any sort of rule change, just the odd minute of consultation with an official who has a TV. The FIFA president has been pondering the idea of doing away with the offside law altogether (Article here from The Times).

As far as I understand the change, it would apply the offside law to say the final third of the pitch, or the 18 yard box, but elsewhere the law doesn’t apply. This would mean teams having to sit very deep to not allow attackers such a great advantage leaving vast spaces in the midfield for passing play to occur. In one sense it could kill the long ball game, given the depth at which the defenders will have to sit they will be able to easily deal with any howitzers fed from back to front. On the other hand I think this will take away a certain level of tactical nous and strategy from the game.

First bans handed out for blasphemy crackdown in Italy

The FIGC in Italy have finally started handing out bans for swearing, blasphemy and the display of motifs, logos or controversial messages on players shirts during goal celebrations. The first two culprits are the Chievo coach Domenico Di Carlo and Parma striker Davide Lanzafame. Referees have been instructed to red card any players they hear blaspheming during games and the authorities will also be enforcing bans retrospectively using the powers of TV evidence. More here at FourFourTwo.

I wonder how such a policy would go down in the English leagues. Perhaps it would foster a little more respect for referees, not that the premier league is any less respectful than any other major European league. I would like to see how many players are sent during the first few weeks of the policy’s introduction.

England climb above Argentina in FIFA rankings

In a world not quite as unfathomable as the magical UEFA coefficients, England have moved up a place to 8th in the FIFA world rankings. They knock Argentina down one, while Germany have also moved up into 5th place. England’s opponents tonight, Egypt, have moved down a whopping 7 places to 17th. I suspect this is due to their failure to qualify for the world cup later this year. More here and here.

Cassano to be the next Pandev?

The liberation of Goran Pandev in December set an interesting precedent for the treatment of players going out of contract in Serie A. In previous years if a player had been in unsuccessful contract negotiation or was requesting a transfer chairmen in Italy effectively put the player on the naughty step.

Antonio Cassano has been effectively excluded from the Sampdoria squad since the Genoese squad tried to offload the once upon a time reckless striker to Fiorentina in the January transfer window. Fees had been agreed but at the final hour the player pulled out. This transfer had come after a public falling out between the player and the Sampdoria manager Del Neri.

Since this public spat Cassano has been out of favour with Del Neri and hasn’t featured for the club. However they haven’t missed his presence, their first loss came at the weekend in a 1-0 defeat against Parma. the defeat only coming from a very generous penalty decision.

If this situation persists it will be interesting to see if this case pans out in a similar manner to the Pandev case. Arguably, Cassano is past any semblance of prime he ever had, more occupied with filling his face with pastries and having as much sex as he possibly can. I find it difficult to believe that he would make the impact transfer that Pandev has achieved at Inter. The precedent certainly suggests that further player’s have been handed further power, in a world where they already have the ability demand extortionate wages, this disrupts the player-club balance. To what extent the balance has been shifted, we will have to wait and see.

It also seems that the boat has sailed for both Cassano and his supporters, the 23-man squad was announced a few days ago. However there was a greater chance of a 2 legged horse winning the Grand National, than Antonio Cassano being called up to the Azzurri under Marcello Lippi. Their spats have been well publicised and Lippi recently produced a big fat ‘I told you so’ over Cassano’s bust up with Del Neri.